Session
Description:
Many of today's Internet governance institutions emerged from political decisions made under unique historical circumstances. Yet policymakers rarely have the opportunity to examine how different choices by governments or stakeholders might have reshaped today's Internet governance landscape. Counterfactual analysis offers a way to revisit key moments, challenge institutional assumptions, and explore alternative policy pathways that remain relevant to contemporary debates. This workshop brings together experienced practitioners involved in major Internet governance and cybersecurity negotiations to discuss three historically grounded counterfactual scenarios drawn from the evolution of the multistakeholder model, the Internet Governance Forum (IGF), and international cyber diplomacy. Each scenario will be introduced by the moderator, followed by diverse perspectives from speakers representing government, the technical community, civil society, academia, and international organizations. Participants will then join the discussion, testing the plausibility of different outcomes, identifying overlooked assumptions, and exploring how alternative political choices might have affected today's governance ecosystem. To enrich deliberations, the workshop will use a multi-agent AI platform operating as a silent facilitator throughout the session. This platform will provide historical context, retrieve relevant evidence, identify comparable precedents, synthesize emerging arguments, and document areas of convergence and disagreement in real time. Participants may interrogate these outputs, challenge them, or ignore them entirely. By ultimately examining whether structured counterfactual analysis can become a practical tool for policy learning, the workshop will explore how AI can responsibly support complex policy discussions without displacing human judgment but, most importantly, conclude by inviting participants to consider a forward-looking question: Which governance assumptions should the next generation of Internet institutions be willing to revisit?
Many of today's Internet governance institutions emerged from political decisions made under unique historical circumstances. Yet policymakers rarely have the opportunity to examine how different choices by governments or stakeholders might have reshaped today's Internet governance landscape. Counterfactual analysis offers a way to revisit key moments, challenge institutional assumptions, and explore alternative policy pathways that remain relevant to contemporary debates. This workshop brings together experienced practitioners involved in major Internet governance and cybersecurity negotiations to discuss three historically grounded counterfactual scenarios drawn from the evolution of the multistakeholder model, the Internet Governance Forum (IGF), and international cyber diplomacy. Each scenario will be introduced by the moderator, followed by diverse perspectives from speakers representing government, the technical community, civil society, academia, and international organizations. Participants will then join the discussion, testing the plausibility of different outcomes, identifying overlooked assumptions, and exploring how alternative political choices might have affected today's governance ecosystem. To enrich deliberations, the workshop will use a multi-agent AI platform operating as a silent facilitator throughout the session. This platform will provide historical context, retrieve relevant evidence, identify comparable precedents, synthesize emerging arguments, and document areas of convergence and disagreement in real time. Participants may interrogate these outputs, challenge them, or ignore them entirely. By ultimately examining whether structured counterfactual analysis can become a practical tool for policy learning, the workshop will explore how AI can responsibly support complex policy discussions without displacing human judgment but, most importantly, conclude by inviting participants to consider a forward-looking question: Which governance assumptions should the next generation of Internet institutions be willing to revisit?
Policy Question(s)
Scenario 1: How might the Internet governance ecosystem have evolved if the WSIS negotiations had concluded with stronger intergovernmental oversight of critical Internet resources, rather than the multistakeholder governance arrangements that accompanied the creation of the Internet Governance Forum?
Scenario 2: What if international cybersecurity policies had evolved through technical and operational collaboration rather than diplomatic norm development?
Scenario 3: What if AI governance had been integrated into existing Internet governance institutions rather than developing through multiple parallel initiatives?
Expected Outcomes
Participants will understand how counterfactual analysis can strengthen policy learning by revealing the long-term implications of alternative governance choices. Through dialogue with experts from diverse stakeholder groups, they will develop a deeper understanding of the institutional trade-offs that continue to shape Internet governance and international cyber policy.
The workshop will produce a concise report documenting the principal policy insights, alternative governance pathways discussed, and areas of convergence and divergence identified by participants. AI will support evidence retrieval, synthesis and institutional memory while remaining entirely subordinate to participant deliberation. The report will also reflect on the practical contribution of AI-assisted facilitation to supporting evidence-based, inclusive, and transparent multistakeholder dialogue. The counterfactual scenarios, discussion methodology, and workshop outcomes will be published as an open resource for future Internet governance schools, diplomatic training programmes, and multistakeholder capacity-building initiatives.
Format
Roundtable
Duration (minutes): 90
Format description: The workshop is an interactive deliberative exercise rather than a panel discussion. Participants assume the role of decision-makers at pivotal moments in the evolution of Internet governance and international cyber policy, exploring alternative governance pathways through structured counterfactual scenarios. Each scenario follows a four-stage cycle: Decide → Debate → Reconsider → Reflect. Participants first make an individual policy choice through a live poll based on the historical context presented. Expert speakers then analyse the institutional, technical, geopolitical, and societal implications of each option from diverse stakeholder perspectives. Onsite and online participants engage in moderated discussion before voting again to assess whether the exchange has changed their views or identified areas of convergence and continuing disagreement. An AI-assisted facilitation platform synthesises the discussion, highlights historical parallels and emerging themes, and documents how collective reasoning evolves. AI supports transparent, inclusive, and evidence-informed deliberation while participants remain the decision-makers.
Duration (minutes): 90
Format description: The workshop is an interactive deliberative exercise rather than a panel discussion. Participants assume the role of decision-makers at pivotal moments in the evolution of Internet governance and international cyber policy, exploring alternative governance pathways through structured counterfactual scenarios. Each scenario follows a four-stage cycle: Decide → Debate → Reconsider → Reflect. Participants first make an individual policy choice through a live poll based on the historical context presented. Expert speakers then analyse the institutional, technical, geopolitical, and societal implications of each option from diverse stakeholder perspectives. Onsite and online participants engage in moderated discussion before voting again to assess whether the exchange has changed their views or identified areas of convergence and continuing disagreement. An AI-assisted facilitation platform synthesises the discussion, highlights historical parallels and emerging themes, and documents how collective reasoning evolves. AI supports transparent, inclusive, and evidence-informed deliberation while participants remain the decision-makers.
Hybrid Format: The workshop is designed for an equivalent experience for both onsite and online attendees. Each counterfactual scenario will begin with short interventions from invited experts, followed by moderated discussion involving participants in the room and online through equal speaking opportunities. The moderator will alternate between onsite and remote interventions to ensure balanced participation.
Participants will be invited to respond to one another's reasoning. The AI platform will support by capturing emerging themes, and synthesising areas of agreement and disagreement in real time. These outputs will be displayed during the discussion and used to stimulate further debate, allowing online participants to engage with the same contextual information as those attending in person.
Interactive methods: Moderated discussion, audience interventions, live polling.
Open Q&A with both onsite and online participants.
Digital tools:
An AI-assisted facilitation platform providing historical context, evidence retrieval, thematic synthesis, and documentation of the discussion. Live polling.
Organizer 1: PABLO HINOJOSA, TechGov Digital
Organizer 2: Madeline Carr, 🔒
Organizer 3: Anriette Esterhuysen, African School on Internet Governance
Organizer 2: Madeline Carr, 🔒
Organizer 3: Anriette Esterhuysen, African School on Internet Governance
Speaker 1: Anriette Esterhuysen, Civil Society, African Group
Speaker 2: Ian Sheldon, Government, Western European and Others Group (WEOG)
Speaker 3: Francesca Bosco, Civil Society, Western European and Others Group (WEOG)
Speaker 4: PABLO HINOJOSA, Civil Society, Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC)
Speaker 2: Ian Sheldon, Government, Western European and Others Group (WEOG)
Speaker 3: Francesca Bosco, Civil Society, Western European and Others Group (WEOG)
Speaker 4: PABLO HINOJOSA, Civil Society, Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC)
Moderator
Madeline Carr, Civil Society, Western European and Others Group (WEOG)
Online Moderator
PABLO HINOJOSA, Civil Society, Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC)
Rapporteur
PABLO HINOJOSA, Civil Society, Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC)
What will participants gain from attending this session?
